Published in The Lance, student-run newspaper of Livingston High School, Vol. 69 Issue 02
Six States Could Decide Who Controls the Senate
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Since 2014, party control of the Senate hasn’t changing during midterm years.
However, with President Donald Trump holding a 33% approval rating in an October ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll and Democrats up 9% on the Generic House Ballot according to the same poll, Senate control could change this November. It all comes down to six states.
In Alaska, Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan faces Democrat and former Congresswoman Mary Peltola. Peltola is the last Democrat to have won statewide in Alaska, having been elected to the state’s sole congressional seat in 2022, before losing re-election in 2024. Despite this, Peltola received 49.5% of the vote in Alaska’s August nonpartisan Senate Primary, with Sullivan receiving 41.4%. Currently, Peltola leads by 3.6% on the Silver Bulletin polling average.
In Iowa, Republican Congresswoman Ashley Hinson faces Democratic State Senator Josh Turek. Hinson is described as an electoral over-performer, given how she won re-election by 16% in 2024, while President Donald Trump won her district by 10%. Polls between Hinson and Turek remain close, with Turek holding a 1.1% lead on the Silver Bulletin.
In Maine, incumbent Susan Collins, Republican, faces Democrat and former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson. Jackson was nominated in a July special convention, replacing the former nominee Graham Platner, who dropped out over misconduct allegations. Despite this controversy, Jackson leads by 2.8% on the Silver Bulletin, though in 2020, Collins won re-election by 9% when all polls predicted she’d lose.
In Michigan, former Wayne County Health Commissioner, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed faces 2024 Senate nominee and former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers. In 2024, Rogers lost by only 20,000 votes to Elissa Slotkin. Both Rogers and El-Sayed have levied criticisms against each other. During the September RNC convention in Dallas, Rogers called El-Sayed a “con man.” El-Sayed responded during a Detroit rally, saying “Rogers doesn’t want to talk about the policies that he has to answer for with…Trump,” tying Rogers to the president, who holds a 42% approval rating in Michigan according to an October CBS poll. Currently, El-Sayed leads by 3.4% on the Silver Bulletin.
In Ohio, incumbent John Husted, Republican, faces former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown. In 2024, Brown lost re-election to the U.S. Senate by 3.62% to Bernie Moreno, making Ohio’s race one of the closest of that year. Currently, Brown leads by 4.1% on the Silver Bulletin.
In Texas, state Attorney General Ken Paxton, Republican, faces State Rep. James Talarico, Democrat. Both candidates have faced criticisms over past controversies: Paxton was impeached in 2023 by the Texas House of Representatives over allegations he used his office to benefit donors, while Talarico made waves in 2021 when said on the floor of the Texas House that “God is non-binary.” Currently, Talarico leads on the Silver Bulletin by 2.6%.
While Democrats currently lead in all races, the true results will come only after Nov. 3, when voters cast their ballots. For now, polls remain close and Senate control is undecided.
